TROPICAL STORM BARRY SLOWLY ORGANIZING

Tropical storm Barry has been slowly organizing throughout the day with winds now up to 45mph. However, Barry is being impacted in a significant way by wind shear and extremely dry air in the mid-levels. This can be seen quite clearly in the image below. The center of the storm is in the red circle yet all of the thunderstorm activity is displaced well away from the center. This is typical of a sheared storm dealing with dry air and will help keep it from strengthening quickly.

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The official NHC forecast is taking Barry into central Louisiana. The majority of the heavy rain and wind will be on the east side of this storm. Notice the remnants are expected to stay well away from SC and NC.

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FLOODING THREAT FOR LOUISIANA

The big story with Barry will be the flooding issues. Many of the levee’s around New Orleans are already a few feet away from water spilling over them. With the heavy rains expected it could get very bad. The Euro and GFS have a little bit of a different focus with the heavy rain. The Euro keeps the heaviest rains, 1-2 feet of it, to the west of New Orleans while the GFS brings the heaviest right over the area. The NHC is forecasting a much broader area of heavy rain.

While Barry will not be a threat for our area, those in the path of Barry are facing the prospect of terrible flooding and losing everything. Many of us here in the Carolinas know what it’s like to deal with flooding after the numerous tropical systems we have had to deal with in recent years (Matthew and Florence for example).

STRONG STORMS THURSDAY?

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for most of NC and parts of SC tomorrow. This means a few storms could reach severe limits with strong winds the main risk in any storms that do develop!

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