TROPICAL STORM LEE: Major East Coast Threat?
/Lee to Become an Extremely Strong Hurricane
Tropical Storm Lee has a nearly perfect environment over the next few days to strengthen. Most models take Lee to category 4 or 5 strength over the next 3-5 days and the NHC agrees forecasting Lee to have winds of 140mph (NHC has said this could be low).
Looking at Lee in the Central Atlantic you can see the core developing in a broader tropical envelope. Notice the light cirrus streamers expanding outward around the green circle. That is a sign of an extremely favorable environment with no shear.
Lee will likely be the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic this year over the next few days.
Thankfully, Lee will be at his peak over open waters. The northern islands of the Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on Lee, but models and the NHC keep the core of the storm away from land over the next 5 days.
East Coast Threat
It’s what happens after the next five days that could spell trouble for the East Coast. Let’s break it down.
Below we have the GFS model for 7 days and 9 days from now (next Wednesday and Saturday)
There are a lot of players on the field next week but the main ones will be the high pressures across Canada and the northern Atlantic and a trough across the Eastern US. The high pressure north of Lee on the gfs right now is not very strong but it is trying to close the door for Lee to escape. At the same time the trough across the Eastern US can act to capture Lee and pull him toward the US. OR it could also help scoot him away depending on the location of Lee.
By day nine (next Friday) you can see that high pressure has built across the New England area and is attempting to block Lee’s exit. The trough in the Eastern US is weaker and has not captured Lee.
In this scenario, Lee would likely pass just offshore or scrape Nova Scotia as he is pulled north.
If the high pressure build in faster and stronger it could force Lee even further west toward the Eastern US. Also, if the trough and low associated with it are stronger it could capture Lee and swing him into the Eastern US.
Trends and Level of Threat: Who should watch Lee?
Right now most modeling takes Lee out to sea. BUT trends have been for a stronger ridge to build which has been pushing Lee’s turn to the north further west and closer to the US. Below is the EURO Ensemble and you can see a few members getting close to the Eastern US coast.
ANYONE along the East Coast should be watching Lee extremely closely over the next few days. From NC up to Nova Scotia probably have the highest threat of direct impacts from Lee if trend continue.
We will be monitoring the trends in data constantly over the next few days and you should too!