BREIF COOLDOWN: WATCHING TS JERRY

Current Pattern

We have been in a very warm and dry pattern for the last few weeks and that looks to continue as we head toward late September.

Here is the GFS forecasted pattern way out on September 30th. This probably will change BUT it is a great snapshot of the pattern we have seen recently. A large ridge of high pressure has been sitting over the Eastern US. This is allowing hot air to flow in unhindered from the Atlantic.

This is a typical summer look for us and until this ridge breaks down we will remain warm.

Luckily, we will see a brief period of cooler weather before we probably warm back up. (It is late in the year so “hot” does not mean 100 degree weather. It means warmer than normal. Theses hot temps cannot hang on much longer as we are losing daylight rapidly now. But it is not too uncommon to see these temps into the first few weeks of October.)

tropicaltidbits.com

The cooldown will be very nice with much of NC struggling to climb toward the upper 70s for a few days starting tomorrow!

Here is the NAM forecast for HIGH temps tomorrow afternoon. We are heading toward fall! The sun is much weaker than it was a month ago so you will notice cooler mornings and cooler days. We are looking for a pattern shift toward fall as we head into October!

Tropicaltidbits.com

Tropical Storm Jerry

We have a new storm in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Jerry has formed and is slowly heading toward the Lesser Antilles.

Here is the latest NHC track. Most models currently turn Jerry away from land and out to sea. That is seen in this NHC cone. BUT there is a chance that Jerry takes a more southern track.

NHC

Here is the EURO Ensemble. Notice there are two camps of models. The northern group that goes out to sea are all weak storms while the southern group is much stronger.

This is a fairly rare instance where a stronger storm early means that it will track further south and west. (typically a strong storm pulls north faster) The steering pattern over the Atlantic leaves the door open for a stronger storm to sneak south.

IF Jerry stays to the south it is possible that Jerry will impact several islands and also pose a threat to the US down the road. As of now this is just something to monitor.

Weathernerds.org

Enjoy the cooler weather!