INVESTIGATION 98L APPROACHING NC
/The disturbance we have been tracking for a few days now is slowly approaching the NC coast. You can see the large ball of intense convection and storms and how close this disturbance is from the NC coast. This system was formed from a piece of energy that broke off of Florence after landfall so IF it develops into a weak tropical storm it should get a new name.
Infrared satellite showing the strong convection associated with 98L
The good news is most if not all of the heavy rain should stay offshore with only some tropical showers and storms scattered across the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
Expected rainfall total from the GFS model
Below are the various track possibilities forecasted by the computer models. The consensus has the center passing right over or just east of the Outer Banks. Fortunately strong shear and a hostile environment should prevent this system from doing much of anything.
Computer model forecast for 98L
It has a chance to develop into a tropical depression or VERY WEAK tropical storm but the shear near our coast and the approaching cold front will prevent it from doing much. For now the only impacts we expect are some tropical showers and storms Tuesday/Wednesday.
We will continue watching this closely and update again tomorrow as needed!